Wounded Tigers kick off road trip versus Rays

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers begin what could be a make-or-break week-long road trip for the American League Central contenders tonight at Tropicana Field, where the struggling and injury-plagued club takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in a clash of postseason hopefuls.

Detroit enters the opener of this four-game series just two games behind first-place Chicago in the AL Central standings, but hasn't performed like a playoff-worthy team lately. The Tigers have lost nine of their last 12 contests and dropped all four bouts of their only road set during that span, which came against last-place Cleveland from July 16-18.

Winning away from home has been a challenge for Detroit all year long. The Tigers are a poor 16-29 on the road this season and haven't taken a series as the visitor since registering a two-game sweep at Oakland from May 19-20.

The Tigers also starts up this important trip, which also includes a stop at Boston's Fenway Park, at nothing close to full strength. Detroit has lost three lineup regulars -- third baseman Brandon Inge (broken hand), right fielder Magglio Ordonez (fractured right ankle) and second baseman Carlos Guillen (calf strain) to injuries over the past week.

Detroit will be coming in with a bit of momentum, however, after putting forth a strong rally to deliver a much-needed 6-5 win over Toronto in yesterday's finale of a doubleheader. The Blue Jays prevailed in the opener by a 5-3 count.

Toronto appeared headed for a sweep of the twinbill after carrying a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth, but the Tigers responded with four runs to move ahead. MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera brought Detroit within a run by smacking a two-RBI double with one out, and Ryan Raburn put the team ahead two batters later with a two-run double off his own off Jays reliever Jason Frasor.

Raburn finished with three RBI in the nightcap, while Cabrera went 2-for-4 to raise his season average to .350. Reliever Phil Coke (6-1) garnered the win by throwing a scoreless top of the eighth, with All-Star closer Jose Valverde notching his 21st save despite allowing a solo homer to Dewayne Wise in the ninth.

Valverde also struggled in the first game, serving up a two-run homer to Lyle Overbay in the top of the ninth that snapped a 3-3 deadlock.

Tampa Bay will embark upon a season-high 11-game homestand this evening and returns to Tropicana Field off back-to-back wins over Cleveland over the weekend. The Rays took Sunday's rubber match of the three-game series by a 4-2 score, with Reid Brignac belting a three-run homer to support a strong outing from starting pitcher Wade Davis.

Brignac's second-inning blast off Justin Masterson gave Tampa a 3-1 advantage, and Davis overcame a shaky beginning to make the lead stand. The rookie righty was touched for a run in each of the first two frames, but held the Indians scoreless over the remainder of his 6 1/3-inning stint to move to 8-9 on the season.

"The first two innings was an uphill battle," Davis said. "Couldn't really find anything to go to throughout the whole game, but we played some great defense today and won the game."

Sunday's victory kept the Rays within three games of the first-place New York Yankees in the AL East standings. Following this series, Tampa Bay will host the defending world champions in a three-game set.

Matt Garza will attempt to follow up Davis' sharp showing, as well as rebound from a horrible last start, when he takes the mound for the Rays tonight. The usually-reliable right-hander was torched for seven runs in 6 1/3 innings of a road loss to Baltimore last Tuesday, giving up four homers and 10 hits overall in a forgettable performance.

Heading back to Tropicana Field could get Garza back on track, as he's registered three wins and a no-decision in his last four starts there and sports a 5-2 record in 10 overall games (nine starts) at home this year.

Garza does not have a track record of success against the Tigers, however. In six lifetime encounters with Detroit, the 26-year-old is 0-4 with a 5.85 earned run average.

The Rays figure to face a stern test tonight from Detroit starter Max Scherzer, who's been terrific since being recalled from a brief banishment to the minors in late May. In 10 starts following his return to the big leagues, the young right-hander has compiled a 6-3 record and an outstanding 2.54 ERA in addition to racking up 74 strikeouts over a span of 63 2/3 innings.

Scherzer was on top of his game once again this past Wednesday, yielding just four hits and fanning five over seven shutout frames to defeat AL West leader Texas. It's the fifth time in his last six starts the former Arizona Diamondbacks first-round selection has given up one run or less.

The University of Missouri product, who turns 26 on Tuesday, is just 1-5 with a 5.61 ERA in nine road starts this season, however. This will be Scherzer's first-ever start against the Rays.

Detroit has lost its last six contests on the road, but did sweep a three-game set from the Rays at Tropicana Field last September. The Tigers won five of the seven overall meetings between the clubs in 2009.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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