Wanted: A must-see player for Clippers

Basketball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rapper Young Jeezy once boasted that mentioning his name would bring an entire city out.

That same drawing power can be heralded by LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and a just handful of other players in the NBA.

Unfortunately the "other" team in Hollywood, the Los Angeles Clippers, hasn't had the luxury of calling a true superstar player one of its own. Norm Nixon, Marques Johnson and Derek Smith were respectable in their time in LA, as were Danny Manning, Ron Harper, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette. But none were necessarily magnets for fans.

In order for the Clippers to step out of the shadows of the title-laden Lakers, they're going to have to do better than running out the current crop of high-level performers like Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon and Baron Davis. I'm not saying those players will be the death of another Clippers' season in 2010-11, but president Andy Roeser and assistant GM Neil Olshey could have pulled some strings via trade before the draft.

Let's not forget the two reached out to - and reached for - James before the multi-talented personality decided to take his talents to South Beach. The Clippers should have known they had a snowball's chance in the Staples Center parking lot to land the coveted free agent, and now they're left with basically the same roster as before. The team was honored to have been invited to meet with James and the main selling point was its "extraordinary nucleus of players."

If the Clippers are alluding to the core of players that competed to a 29-53 record a year ago, than I'm missing something here. Why in the world would James have ever wanted to perhaps finish his career in NBA purgatory? To me it's almost comparable to a Detroit Lions representative trying to persuade Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to play out their 2010 contract and head to Motown for a chance of winning three or four games over the next few years.

Not a chance.

Instead of pipe-dreaming over James, I would have tried to package a player or two and the Clippers' eighth overall pick in last month's NBA Draft for a veteran presence, or at least someone with credibility. Instead, Los Angeles brought back Craig Smith, added Willie Warren, Ryan Gomes and Randy Foye, and selected Al-Farouq Aminu with the No. 8 pick. It later snagged Eric Bledsoe with the 18th overall selection.

To me that spells another 20-to-30 win campaign, but don't tell that to new head coach Vinny Del Negro. Del Negro, who was able to ignore heat from upper management in Chicago and lead the Bulls to the playoffs, said in his introductory press conference that he's looking forward and feels the snake-bitten franchise is headed "in a different direction right now."

What direction are you alluding to, Mr. Del Negro? The Clippers were 28 games out of first place in the Pacific Division in 2009-10 and were lucky to finish third in the standings with Golden State and Sacramento doing slightly worse. I guess the only direction is up when your team finishes 8-33 on the road and 15-37 in conference play.

Del Negro noted that coaching the Clippers was the right opportunity for him and his family, and was able to beat out Mavericks assistant Dwane Casey for the job. Olshey commented on how Del Negro had solutions, and was able to overcome obstacles in Chicago en route to postseason appearances. Am I wrong here when I say that having Derrick Rose, arguably one of the best point guards in the game, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng would make drawing up X's and O's easier on any head coach? The larger perception was that the Bulls underachieved under Del Negro.

Let's see how the new coach does with a bunch of players only some in the City of Angels, and Malcolm in the Middle star Frankie Muniz, could identify.

Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, missed his rookie season after undergoing knee surgery and could be the name Clippers brass and fans will continue to rest their hopes on. Several pundits pegged Portland top pick Greg Oden - mired in a similar injury-laden situation - to do the same a few years ago and he's been a bust so far. Griffin seems to have more upside than Oden with his thick, muscular physique and just needs to develop an outside game.

But, Griffin also has to stay healthy, and has the added pressure of being counted on as the face of the organization. There's little to suggest that he's ready for that role.

With several other high Clippers draft picks washing out of the league in recent years, a lot of hope is resting on the repaired knee of the young power forward. Griffin's not going to garner the type of publicity James, Bryant or Howard can, but he'll make a Clippers team that much better with a serviceable supporting cast in Davis, Gordon and Kaman. Griffin said before the 2010 draft that he'd learned how to be patient with his rehab and is eager to hit the hardwood again. In my opinion, that should excite his teammates and coaching staff more than any of the changes the Clips have made this offseason.

Whether Griffin succeeds or fails, for a Clippers fan base that annually eyes a better tomorrow, the time is now for a big-time player to start filling the seats that have been too often vacant when the home team is wearing red and royal blue, as opposed to purple and gold.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.