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08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR's traditional late summer Saturday night shootout at the Bristol Motor Speedway highlights a busy week at the race track.
NASCAR
Nextel Cup
Sharpie 500 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN
It took three days, but for Kurt Busch the race at Michigan was worth the wait. The 2004 Nextel Cup champion solidified his hold on the 12th and final spot in the "Chase for the Nextel Cup."
"This was an unbelievable performance for my Pat Tryson-led Miller Lite Dodge team and they deserve the credit," said Busch. "You know, I've got to thank the fans who stuck it out on a Tuesday to see a green-white-checker. We put it on for them here at the end, all the restarts, all of the guys on different strategy, it really was a tough, hard-fought win."
Busch has built his lead from 96 points before the race to 163 points over Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 171 over his Penske Racing teammate Ryan Newman. His second win in the last three races also means that should he make the "Chase" he would start with the fourth-highest total. Only Jeff Gordon (four wins), Jimmie Johnson (four) and Tony Stewart (three) would begin the 10-race "playoffs" with more points.
And even better news for Busch is that this week's event is at the Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where the Las Vegas native has had great success. In 13 career starts at BMS, Busch has one pole, five wins and eight top-10s. Between the spring of 2002 and the spring of 2004 he won four of five races and has led a total of 560 laps.
That's not quite as many as Gordon (active leader with 2,435) or Stewart (1,085), but it's better than Greg Biffle, Bill Elliott, Kevin Harvick or Newman.
Owner Roger Penske is also impressed with how Busch has rebounded from some early career problems. Although he still has to learn to control himself sometimes (ex: At Dover in June following a crash with Stewart, Busch drove into Stewart's car on pit road, nearly hitting a member of Stewart's team drawing a 100-point penalty and a $100,000 fine) he has become more of a team leader.
"I think Kurt appreciates what we're putting behind him," said Penske. "He certainly has demonstrated in the last (few) races how good he really is. I think he's at the top of his game. We hung with him when he was down, facedown quite honestly... The team has stood behind him and certainly you can see what has turned out to be a terrific team and some great success to date."
Busch will likely have to fight with Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Harvick for another win this week and the all-important 10 playoff points that a win is worth.
Gordon, like Busch, owns five Bristol wins. He also has finished in the top-10 an amazing 18 times in 29 starts. Kenseth has earned two wins and nine top-10s in 15 career starts around the 0.533-mile oval. Harvick has one win and nine top-10s in 13 starts and an average finish of 10.1, best among the drivers currently in the "Chase."
As always when you try and shoehorn 43 cars onto the high-banked, half-mile oval at Bristol expect to see plenty of bent sheetmetal and frustrated drivers. It makes for great racing.
Busch
Food City 250 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN
The Busch Series continues to trudge through the long season with Carl Edwards dominating from beginning to end. At least in the driver category.
In the owner's championship, the race is much, much closer. While Edwards leads Kevin Harvick in the driver standings by 700 points, the battle between the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford and the No.29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet is a different story.
After last week, the combination of Jeff Burton and Scott Wimmer driving the No.29 Chevy is actually ahead of Edwards' No.60. The No.29 team was more than 300 points behind the No.60 following the second race at Nashville Superspeedway in June, but has made up all the ground and now leads by 40 points.
The No.29 took the lead last week after Edwards was spun out by Reed Sorenson and wound up 28th. Meanwhile, Burton finished fourth. The strong run was Burton's ninth top-five and 12th top-10 finish in just 13 starts this season.
"Scott (Wimmer) has done a great job for us," said Burton. "It's still a long way to go but we're having a lot of fun with it. With all of the pressure on the No.60, and having such a big lead in the driver point standings, nobody expected us to be in it. We're just having fun and Richard (Childress) wants us to win the owners championship in the worst way and we want to win it in the worst way."
Obviously, with the drivers championship pretty much already decided, it will be the only race worth watching.
Craftsman
O'Reilly 200 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN
"Race leader Mike Skinner" is a phrase used quite often this season. The driver of the No.5 Toyota truck has led at least one lap in the last 19 races dating back to the Atlanta Motor Speedway in October 2006.
Skinner led 102 laps in the last Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway pushing him over the 1,000-miles led mark in 2007. It is the fifth time in the series the feat has been accomplished and the second time for Skinner, who did it in 1996. Skinner finished third in 1996 and is determined to finish a couple of positions higher this season.
Skinner has led the most laps in seven races this year while leading the series in points (2,521), winnings ($526,850), wins (4), poles (8), top-fives (12) and top-10s (14). He also leads Ron Hornaday Jr. by 82 points.
Wednesday's race will present a different challenge than usual at the 0.533- mile, high-banked, Bristol Motor Speedway short track. In addition to the traditional problems that BMS entails there is the added feature of a newly paved race track.
Teams tested there in July, but it will still be the first NASCAR race on the track since it was repaved.
"They did a nice job, the track looks different, but it's really the same Bristol - and that's a good thing," said Ted Musgrave's crew chief Rick Gay Jr.
In the test, Travis Kvapil was quickest at 119.626 m.p.h., while Musgrave was second fastest.
"The team did a great job working through our test plan," Kvapil said. "They hit on some things towards the end of the day that found us some more speed."
Kvapil (-236) sits third in the championship after winning the last race at Nashville.
"It was pretty awesome," said Kvapil in the post-race press conference. "It took our K&N Ford half the race to get the track position and the right adjustment in it. This is the truck we won with in Michigan and finished second in Kentucky with."
It was Kvapil's ninth consecutive top-10 and third win of the season. If Skinner and Hornaday Jr. weren't having such great seasons, Kvapil would be right in the middle of the battle, instead of just outside of it, looking in.
The good news, however, is there are still 10 races left and if Kvapil can keep up his current pace he can challenge Skinner and Hornaday Jr. for the championship.
INDYCARS
Motorola Indy 300 - Infineon Raceway - Sonoma, CA
Two races ago, Tony Kanaan was virtually a bystander in the championship race. He was 111 points behind teammate Dario Franchitti and 77 points behind Scott Dixon.
Worse, neither Franchitti nor Dixon had made a misstep all season and it looked as if the gap was too large to bridge.
The series traveled to the Michigan International Speedway and Kanaan collected his first win of the season. Better still, Dixon faltered with handling problems finishing 10th and Franchitti finished 13th after a frightening upside-down ride.
Two weeks ago Kanaan won his second consecutive race, at the Kentucky Speedway, while points leader Franchitti again struggled.
The series arrives this week at the road course in Sonoma, CA and Kanaan is just 52 points behind Franchitti and 44 out of second place. With just three races remaining on the schedules (Infineon, Belle Isle, Chicagoland) it is a three-horse race for the title.
But Kanaan will have to improve on last year when he ran 11th. Then 19-year- old Marco Andretti won the race edging Franchitti for the first win of his career. For Andretti it was all about fuel strategy and fuel conservation.
"My guys are the best in the business," said the son of Michael Andretti and grandson of Mario Andretti. "Their strategy was brilliant."
Kanaan will also have to best Dixon who has been superior over the last three years on road courses.
Dixon has won four times and collected nine top-10s in his last nine road course starts. In 2007 he has two wins (Mid-Ohio, Watkins Glen) and a second place on the streets of St. Petersburg.
It's a tall order, but if Kanaan wants to add a second crown to his trophy case, he will have to beat Dixon at his own game. So far Kanaan has finished third, fourth and fourth in three road course starts. Nice stats, but not enough.
Franchitti has finished fifth, third and second in three road course starts. Again, pretty good statistics, but given the likelihood of a Dixon win Franchitti could be looking up at the points leader by the end of the weekend.
One thing is for sure, it's a race you shouldn't miss.
CHAMP CARS
Champ Car Grand Prix of Belgium - Circuit Zolder - Zolder, Belgium
The Champ Car Series heads off on the European and Asian portion of the schedule, not returning to North America until mid-November. The series will begin with races in Belgium this weekend and Holland next Sunday. Then its off to Surfer's Paradise and China before finishing the season with an event in Mexico City and one in Phoenix.
Three-time series champion Sebastien Bourdais will bring a 37-point lead to the track at Zolder, Belgium - his largest of the season after a win at Road America. It was his second win in the last three events and coupled with a bad race by Robert Doornbos has allowed him to put some distance between himself and his primary rival for the championship.
The 2.622-mile road course will host a Champ Car event for the first time.
"Obviously it would be awesome to go back to Europe with the McDonald's team and get another couple of wins, but those tracks are a big unknown for us," said Bourdais. "I have never been to Zolder or Assen."
That hasn't seemed to bother the Frenchman in the past. Over the last four years, Champ Cars has used seven new venues and Bourdais won five times.
Doornbos has gone in the opposite direction at just the wrong time. After posting five consecutive top-10s, including a win at Mont-Tremblant, the Rotterdam, Netherlands native has finished outside the top-10 in two of the last three events. But he is excited to be headed back home.
"For Champ Car, it's their first time at Zolder, but not for me - I raced there seven years ago, in 2000," said Doornbos. "It's just great to drive in front of your home crowd, and for sure it gives you an extra boost that you need."
FORMULA ONE
Turkish Grand Prix - Istanbul Autodrom - Istanbul, Turkey
After a wild weekend in Hungary, where McLaren finished first and fourth but gained no manufacturer points because of a qualifying penalty, the series resumes this Sunday with a race in Istanbul, Turkey.
Despite the 15-point penalty, McLaren still has control of both the drivers and manufacturers championship. Behind super rookie Lewis Hamilton and two- time defending World Champion Fernando Alonso the team holds a 19-point edge for the manufacturers trophy. They also have a stranglehold on the drivers championship.
Hamilton, who has only once finished worse than third one time in 11 Formula One starts, owns a seven-point lead in the standings over teammate Alonso. His lead is 20 points over rival Ferrari's No.1 driver Kimi Raikkonen and 21 points over Felipe Massa, also of Ferrari.
Istanbul is a popular circuit for the drivers. It's fast with long straights. It has several different corner combinations including elevation changes and, of course, it has Turn Eight.
"It is probably the most difficult corner in the whole championship," said Renault's Giancarlo Fisichella.
Turn Eight is a long left-hander taken at about 150 m.p.h. which puts a lot of pressure on both driver and machine, particularly late in the race.
"The track is great to drive, with some sections that are really on the limit and what you want to race on as a driver, Turn Eight in particular,"said Alonso.
"It is a very physically demanding circuit, all the fast corners, such as Turn Eight which is awesome and flat out, and the heat place a big demand on the drivers," said Hamilton, who raced there in 2006 in the GP2 Series.
With six races left in the F1 season, McLaren's lead is not big enough that the team can relax.
In 2006, Massa won the Turkish Grand Prix finishing more than five seconds ahead of Alonso for his first Formula One victory.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your basketball sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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